Roasted-Neighbourhood
0xd3012e849dae33c1584e3fa576d2865787f68a94
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$443.22
Total PnL
$-34.73
Realised
$5.17
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
93 shares @ 81.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$80.83
$5.13
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
80 shares @ 83.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$69.57
$3.05
- NO
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
43 shares @ 92.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$42.02
$2.02
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 45.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$41.02
$4.66
- NO
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 82.7¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.85
$1.06
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
30 shares @ 85.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$29.06
$3.56
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
28 shares @ 90.3¢·now 93.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$25.81
$0.81
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
30 shares @ 61.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.28
$6.80
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$21.51
$1.51
- NO
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
20 shares @ 72.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$17.60
$3.20
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$11.24May 17, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?$12.89May 17, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$71.95May 17, 05:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$20.17May 16, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$19.55May 16, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$17.08May 16, 22:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$17.61May 16, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$28.62May 16, 20:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 15, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?$27.07May 14, 07:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 9, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?$14.40May 8, 21:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $13.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".