Elastic-Trapezium
0xd3fc08b7e6aa812b0b67e85be8f1a06b7e2a78fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
26
Open notional
$11.26
Total PnL
$-228.74
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.25
$1.25
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.45
$-1.55
- YES
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
135 shares @ 3.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.55
$-3.45
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the median home value in the US be less than $410,000 by February 1?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iran next?
833 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
383 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
336 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- MINAUR
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
209 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$0.00Apr 4, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$23.74Apr 4, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Percent" 7+ times during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$10.00Mar 3, 10:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026?$40.76Feb 18, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?$12.11Feb 18, 10:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?$50.00Feb 18, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMSeahawks vs. Patriots$14.71Feb 18, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill BNB dip to $800 in January?$19.02Feb 18, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?$95.00Jan 27, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?$5.00Jan 27, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYMinneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?$25.00Jan 27, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSeahawks vs. Patriots$10.00Jan 27, 14:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out by June 30?$5.00Jan 27, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?$5.00Jan 27, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?$5.00Jan 27, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?$20.00Jan 27, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on January 27?$5.00Jan 27, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYVEO 4 released by February 28, 2026?$5.00Jan 27, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk's net worth be between $660b and $670b on January 31?$5.00Jan 27, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 85%?$5.00Jan 27, 11:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $10.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 11:06 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 4, 10:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".