First-Smoke
0xd9315ce4b026d8d67ca96d8196c3f084b1b56115
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$6.8K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-272.87
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
4080 shares @ 55.5¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.6K
$324.10
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
5826 shares @ 25.7¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$961.28
$-536.99
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
1101 shares @ 66.1¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$808.94
$80.91
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
1321 shares @ 36.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$680.55
$204.83
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
1613 shares @ 31.4¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$637.01
$130.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
2130 shares @ 25.6¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$330.15
$-214.19
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
600 shares @ 50.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$321.00
$21.00
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T
1708 shares @ 19.3¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$264.74
$-65.26
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
584 shares @ 25.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$195.64
$49.64
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
655 shares @ 6.8¢·now 7.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.80
$2.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T$309.63May 17, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T$31.01May 16, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$202.88May 16, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?$306.00May 16, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?$535.00May 16, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?$153.66May 12, 15:26 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.30May 11, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$11.22May 10, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$90.86May 10, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$2.92May 10, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$8.74May 10, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$15.93May 10, 15:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$2.00May 10, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$510.00May 10, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$46.65May 10, 15:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$10.00May 10, 15:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$1.96May 10, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?$3.18May 10, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$16.12May 9, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?$15.60May 9, 04:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $165.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 04:27 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 17:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".