Complex-Formation
0xda9126becc96be3598ddd05c4fc06f4093759ffd
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$5.2K
Total PnL
$-80.65
Realised
$162.91
Win rate
56%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
2021 shares @ 93.5¢·now 95.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.9K
$44.31
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
2227 shares @ 59.3¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$1.1K
$-196.63
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
1728 shares @ 41.7¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$942.68
$222.24
- NO
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?
793 shares @ 55.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$721.82
$285.86
- NO
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
523 shares @ 41.4¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$303.58
$86.77
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
2012 shares @ 7.2¢·now 5.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$100.62
$-43.68
- YES
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31?
818 shares @ 41.3¢·now 9.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$73.63
$-263.93
- YES
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
103 shares @ 18.1¢·now 6.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.77
$-11.94
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 36.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.81
$-0.69
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 0.8¢·now 25.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.27
$1.23
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.55May 18, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$300.00May 17, 23:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$434.00May 17, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$513.60May 17, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$26.75May 17, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$513.60May 17, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$26.75May 17, 21:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$31.02May 17, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$79.70May 17, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$94.21May 17, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$85.68May 17, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$436.80May 17, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$22.75May 17, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$21.39May 17, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$1.84May 17, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$7.79May 17, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$86.75May 17, 02:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$636.09May 16, 21:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $168.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 10:14 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".