Outlying-Receiver
0xdb861c1cf148338119e2b481f13572b938b41dc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$886.83
Total PnL
$-21.9K
Realised
$-2.9K
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
885 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$708.00
$88.50
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
180 shares @ 76.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$178.83
$41.29
- YES
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?
10000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
8184 shares @ 36.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- YES
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
6371 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-3.2K
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
5000 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- NO
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale?
3659 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- YES
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
3027 shares @ 48.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-1.5K
- NO
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?
3000 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-810.00
- YES
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
2712 shares @ 18.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?$278.74May 16, 06:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$749.73May 16, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14?$135.00May 14, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$578.00May 14, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)$1.1KMay 13, 11:03 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.23May 10, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)$612.16May 9, 14:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$388.36May 9, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$33.15May 1, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$131.66May 1, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)$75.19May 1, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$274.89Apr 29, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$195.20Apr 29, 13:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$1.00Apr 29, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?$1.00Apr 29, 00:14 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.22Apr 27, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKHL: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl vs. Avangard Omsk$224.19Apr 26, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$222.31Apr 26, 12:01 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.29Apr 26, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)$47.71Apr 25, 15:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $113.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 14, 12:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 06:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".