Capital-Union
0xdc4a4859f266cfffb74b4512d0df243343bcdddc
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$101.32
Total PnL
$2.33
Realised
$0.95
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
20 shares @ 90.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.90
$-1.20
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
13 shares @ 83.7¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.50
$0.50
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
11 shares @ 79.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.86
$0.86
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
6 shares @ 89.2¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.42
$-0.08
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 96.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.12
$0.12
- NO
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.04
$0.04
- YES
Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$4.74
$0.05
- YES
Will Ismaïla Sarr score the most goals in the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 87.4¢·exp May 21, 2026$4.59
$-0.41
- NO
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.33
$0.03
- NO
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?
5 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.03
$0.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?$3.01May 17, 19:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?$0.00May 16, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?$0.00May 16, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFlorentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?$4.30May 14, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?$2.01May 14, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$5.10May 13, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 18?$3.00May 13, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$5.01May 13, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 15?$2.00May 13, 21:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$3.58May 13, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$4.08May 13, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?$3.89May 12, 17:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$10.54May 12, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$7.11May 9, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$3.04May 9, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$2.00May 9, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 12?$2.00May 9, 19:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Borussia Dortmund place 2nd for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?$2.17May 9, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?$5.11May 9, 09:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?$2.11May 8, 20:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 30, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 19:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".