Prize-Jar
0xdd1b8cadae45b05d8f7c02acb1966b4b2ca2ff31
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$600.45
Total PnL
$-192.54
Realised
$-9.03
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
261 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$261.26
$13.83
- NO
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
100 shares @ 94.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$99.95
$5.23
- NO
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
99 shares @ 87.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$98.48
$11.94
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?
228 shares @ 22.7¢·now 27.5¢·exp May 22, 2026$62.71
$10.92
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
43 shares @ 92.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$39.59
$-0.41
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
44 shares @ 91.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.46
$-1.54
- YES
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?
700 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on May 15, 2026?
489 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-41.41
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.0 and 40.4 on May 8, 2026?
309 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.95
- NO
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?
232 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?$17.67May 18, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?$21.46May 18, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?$2.45May 18, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?$8.95May 18, 01:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 22, 2026?$1.25May 18, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16?$13.30May 17, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 16?$0.86May 16, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$42.32May 16, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$44.74May 16, 15:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on May 15, 2026?$38.54May 16, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$3.33May 16, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$4.50May 16, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$94.97May 16, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$30.31May 16, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 16?$2.69May 15, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16?$1.02May 15, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 16?$3.21May 15, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?$7.30May 15, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 16?$6.94May 15, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 16?$3.04May 15, 13:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $16.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 13:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".