Cheerful-Ephemera
0xdf17f4a8dd01a4cfa6fc3da323a2baee5f8697d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
128
Open notional
$789.1K
Total PnL
$35.6K
Realised
$28.2K
Win rate
69%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 128- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
233349 shares @ 92.2¢·now 92.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$216.7K
$1.4K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
108766 shares @ 83.2¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$103.9K
$13.4K
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
94672 shares @ 90.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$85.7K
$-369.60
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
65567 shares @ 88.6¢·now 93.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$61.3K
$3.2K
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
76796 shares @ 68.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.4K
$1.1K
- YES
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?
22377 shares @ 70.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$22.4K
$6.5K
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
22476 shares @ 83.9¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.2K
$357.41
- NO
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?
17219 shares @ 97.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$17.0K
$179.39
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
22164 shares @ 73.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.3K
$40.45
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
20109 shares @ 81.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.8K
$-500.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$50.62May 18, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$692.48May 18, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$38.67May 18, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$53.76May 18, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$12.89May 18, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$30.22May 18, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$20.86May 18, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$42.73May 18, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$38.42May 18, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$55.62May 18, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$49.94May 18, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$386.67May 18, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$1.86May 18, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$36.68May 18, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$43.50May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$25.78May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$238.30May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$34.30May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$9.85May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by May 31?$9.83May 18, 04:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $165.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 03:42 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".