Untrue-Croup
0xdf6cafedd729f199bb0e88ecb8d5bbff19ebeb44
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$4.5K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$242.45
Win rate
64%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
3652 shares @ 27.7¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$566.07
$-447.07
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
570 shares @ 70.3¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$544.35
$143.45
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
510 shares @ 83.0¢·now 93.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$477.36
$53.86
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
481 shares @ 56.1¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$396.54
$126.96
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
670 shares @ 62.7¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$358.45
$-61.55
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
209 shares @ 83.0¢·now 92.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.74
$20.27
- NO
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
238 shares @ 81.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$188.92
$-3.56
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
250 shares @ 9.7¢·now 64.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$160.67
$136.30
- NO
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
145 shares @ 91.6¢·now 97.6¢·exp May 19, 2026$141.52
$8.67
- YES
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
917 shares @ 10.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$128.44
$36.88
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$83.06May 18, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$13.82May 18, 07:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 18, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$10.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$18.52May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany come in last place at Eurovision 2026?$20.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$30.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$40.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$50.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$50.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$70.00May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$114.14May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?$129.99May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$179.99May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$247.50May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$269.99May 17, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$2.5KMay 17, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$83.00May 17, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04May 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$36.28May 16, 23:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $14.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 00:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 07:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".