Distinct-Winner
0xe0f5dbe390ffb8afac81d82fd3f4fd2dfeb98423
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$838.65
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$7.09
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
272 shares @ 85.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$259.76
$27.52
- YES
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
400 shares @ 63.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$234.00
$-18.00
- YES
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
375 shares @ 34.2¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$148.13
$19.88
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
139 shares @ 36.1¢·now 31.6¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$43.71
$-6.37
- NO
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
50 shares @ 64.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.75
$5.75
- NO
US x China tariff agreement by May 31?
34 shares @ 61.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$28.48
$7.80
- YES
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?
61 shares @ 42.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$24.40
$-1.22
- NO
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
25 shares @ 77.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$23.75
$4.50
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
41 shares @ 85.2¢·now 50.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.50
$-14.44
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
96 shares @ 18.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$18.18
$0.96
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?$56.64May 16, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$53.70May 16, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$7.07May 16, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$16.94May 16, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$10.06May 16, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$8.79May 16, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.37May 16, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?$26.36May 16, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$4.07May 16, 04:46 UTC
- REWARD$1.49May 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$25.49May 15, 08:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$11.55May 15, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$10.78May 15, 08:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$5.00May 14, 23:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?$1.01May 14, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?$8.47May 14, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$34.29May 14, 09:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?$239.36May 14, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?$145.91May 14, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by June 30?$100.00May 13, 16:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $30.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 00:02 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 22:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".