Informal-Fiber
0xe3a18747025ea78d967be9c2d14ec479743764a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$52.4K
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$-594.32
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
25500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.7K
$8.0K
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
12329 shares @ 84.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$12.3K
$1.9K
- NO
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
11556 shares @ 93.1¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$11.4K
$671.39
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
25500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.8K
$-8.0K
- NO
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
1612 shares @ 42.8¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$1.2K
$551.15
- YES
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
542 shares @ 83.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$471.87
$21.70
- YES
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
8368 shares @ 10.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$422.59
$-486.32
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?
431 shares @ 86.9¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$404.95
$30.56
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?
400 shares @ 66.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$330.00
$66.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
1213 shares @ 12.2¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$194.11
$46.40
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$20.00May 18, 06:31 UTC
- YIELD$2.79May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$1.00May 17, 12:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$10.00May 17, 07:33 UTC
- YIELD$2.30May 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$5.10May 16, 21:14 UTC
- SPLITWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$6.0KMay 16, 17:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$6.28May 16, 09:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$709.81May 16, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.8KMay 16, 07:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$3.0KMay 16, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$9.32May 16, 01:06 UTC
- YIELD$2.14May 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?$352.00May 15, 13:54 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.05May 15, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$2.27May 15, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?$120.00May 14, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?$264.00May 14, 14:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?$367.22May 14, 11:43 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.5KMay 14, 11:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $292.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 8, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 06:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".