Frightened-Exploration
0xe3e4bded348f8608f322a598c19dbb3c42878d04
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$1.3K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-256.48
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
3000 shares @ 9.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$315.05
$34.84
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 40.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$232.50
$32.50
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
5000 shares @ 2.9¢·now 3.1¢·exp May 31, 2026$155.01
$9.50
- YES
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 46.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$150.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
3000 shares @ 5.2¢·now 4.7¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$141.00
$-15.00
- YES
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
500 shares @ 26.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$102.52
$-28.82
- YES
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
1000 shares @ 27.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$50.00
$-220.00
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$48.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?
118 shares @ 28.4¢·now 31.3¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$36.77
$3.35
- NO
Will Manuel Bompard announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
40 shares @ 91.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2027$33.60
$-2.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.51May 18, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.12May 18, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$46.37May 18, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?$5.68May 18, 02:27 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.13May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$88.60May 18, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$13.82May 18, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?$27.74May 17, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$54.00May 17, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$15.00May 17, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$60.00May 17, 22:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$0.72May 17, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?$2.64May 17, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$666.72May 16, 05:50 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.00May 16, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$63.28May 15, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$18.25May 15, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$29.20May 15, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$375.97May 15, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?$384.18May 15, 22:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $48.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 11:42 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".