Lavish-Geology
0xe741faf8c6ff1791c0c9aafc1578a4f35dc7ec28
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$353.38
Total PnL
$-179.27
Realised
$1.36
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
61 shares @ 65.1¢·now 56.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$34.71
$-5.29
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
37 shares @ 81.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.41
$2.41
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
38 shares @ 78.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$31.34
$1.34
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
112 shares @ 26.7¢·now 24.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$27.92
$-2.08
- YES
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
35 shares @ 86.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$25.12
$-4.88
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
67 shares @ 38.8¢·now 36.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$24.28
$-1.72
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
40 shares @ 63.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.43
$-3.57
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
29 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.43
$0.43
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
24 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
17 shares @ 86.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$16.14
$1.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs$5.06May 16, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMSpurs vs. Timberwolves$4.41May 16, 04:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$6.79May 15, 23:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?$4.05May 15, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 30?$5.00May 15, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Timberwolves$3.03May 15, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYPistons vs. Cavaliers$3.03May 15, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$17.20May 15, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$8.49May 15, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$1.02May 15, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$2.03May 15, 15:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$1.02May 15, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$1.02May 15, 14:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 15, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$5.16May 14, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$2.03May 14, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET$2.03May 14, 00:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $8.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 16:57 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".