Cautious-Folklore
0xe8d5e8f502a857570936434ae005d5e9adcb1cae
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-60.10
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
1197 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.2K
$885.78
- NO
Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
421 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$420.79
$0.21
- PORTSMOUTH FC
Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5)
322 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$322.00
$51.52
- NO
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?
318 shares @ 46.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$318.00
$171.72
- NO
Will Ryan Crosswell be the Democratic nominee for PA-07?
180 shares @ 88.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp May 19, 2026$177.39
$18.99
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
120 shares @ 49.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$106.80
$48.00
- NO
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
944 shares @ 26.4¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$30.68
$-218.54
- OPENAI
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
1139 shares @ 18.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$19.36
$-185.66
- NO
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
4 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.68
$0.40
- YES
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
10 shares @ 22.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$2.65
$0.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5$310.80Apr 24, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?$647.92Apr 24, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?$110.24Apr 9, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Seattle have less than 2.5 inches of precipitation in April?$45.76Apr 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$34.38Apr 9, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$72.90Apr 9, 14:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?$82.65Apr 9, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$197.64Apr 9, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$160.54Apr 9, 12:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$166.52Apr 9, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$11.04Apr 9, 12:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$391.05Apr 9, 12:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?$127.05Apr 9, 12:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-12?$8.58Apr 9, 11:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-12?$14.52Apr 9, 11:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-12?$223.74Apr 9, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$8.40Apr 9, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill São Bernardo FC win on 2026-04-12?$174.24Apr 9, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$14.55Apr 9, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?$115.24Apr 9, 09:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $204.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 23, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 24, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".