Wobbly-Thesis
0xef19a0d53de0f741c932a2e2b64567d1c117f419
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$474.92
Total PnL
$-904.90
Realised
$17.99
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
300 shares @ 35.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$299.97
$194.98
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
200 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.00
$1.00
- YES
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
499 shares @ 20.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$22.48
$-77.42
- YES
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
1000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$20.50
$-179.50
- YES
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
900 shares @ 28.3¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$16.20
$-238.80
- YES
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
770 shares @ 13.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$10.39
$-89.70
- YES
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
35 shares @ 12.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.55
$-0.71
- YES
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
93 shares @ 1.8¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.83
$1.16
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February?
618 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-28.41
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?
301 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-27.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran first?$0.00Mar 6, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$0.00Mar 6, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran first?$50.00Mar 6, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$199.99Mar 6, 18:27 UTC
- REWARD$0.41Mar 2, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$2.30Mar 2, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$7.16Mar 1, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$3.92Mar 1, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.88Mar 1, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$22.41Mar 1, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$53.85Mar 1, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$2.69Mar 1, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$20.24Mar 1, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$1.42Mar 1, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?$46.81Mar 1, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?$103.50Mar 1, 08:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$4.80Mar 1, 06:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$39.04Mar 1, 06:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?$87.00Mar 1, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?$100.30Mar 1, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $29.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 11:20 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 6, 18:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".