Tender-Tradition
0xef4a9530c9db0c24344a3474d2f2cecbe7e45eeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-27.28
Realised
$-6.91
Win rate
50%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- NO
Trump out as President by June 30?
216 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$212.60
$5.23
- NO
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?
153 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$152.62
$0.62
- NO
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?
106 shares @ 90.2¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$97.87
$1.87
- NO
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?
91 shares @ 97.2¢·now 96.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$87.94
$-0.41
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
62 shares @ 83.8¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$49.66
$-2.66
- NO
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
42 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.07
$1.07
- NO
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
40 shares @ 99.4¢·now 97.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$39.24
$-0.76
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
58 shares @ 95.5¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$36.24
$-18.68
- NO
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
41 shares @ 90.4¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$36.08
$-1.42
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
32 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$32.31
$0.31
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$8.00May 18, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?$8.00May 18, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$0.00May 18, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)$0.00May 18, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWuxi: Adam Walton vs Yunchaokete Bu$0.00May 18, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)$0.00May 18, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMKnicks vs. 76ers$0.00May 18, 06:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$0.01May 18, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYDOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?$8.01May 18, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$24.50May 18, 05:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$8.01May 17, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$8.01May 17, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$8.01May 17, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?$8.01May 17, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)$12.90May 17, 03:34 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)$18.60May 17, 03:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 17, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?$8.00May 16, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMIran closes its airspace by May 15?$8.26May 16, 07:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $8.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".