Carefree-Cephalopod
0xf1ca52d08cfd4756fa548774789a3656318e4ac0
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$12.4K
Total PnL
$-22.3K
Realised
$113.61
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- NO
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
1621 shares @ 73.0¢·now 41.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$671.93
$-511.45
- NO
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
600 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$592.50
$76.50
- NO
Will Jason Esteves win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election?
600 shares @ 83.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp May 19, 2026$591.30
$93.30
- NO
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
600 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.6¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$543.60
$15.60
- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
562 shares @ 73.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$525.40
$113.39
- NO
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?
533 shares @ 78.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$522.47
$106.63
- NO
Will Diana Onyeijaka be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?
600 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$513.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 3% and 6%?
568 shares @ 88.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp May 25, 2026$491.61
$-8.53
- NO
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
600 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$483.00
$63.00
- NO
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
593 shares @ 52.2¢·now 75.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$447.79
$138.31
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$44.15May 14, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?$29.30May 8, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$599.92May 4, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?$279.57May 4, 20:16 UTC
- REWARD$6.32May 4, 00:01 UTC
- REDEEMGwangju: Jason Jung vs Hyeon Chung$0.35Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$0.50Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Titouan Droguet$0.50Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy?$0.72Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Lola Radivojevic vs Darja Vidmanova$1.23Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Julieta Pareja$2.17Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$3.06Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+?$4.54Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?$5.56Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?$10.31Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$108.73Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMJiujiang: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Coleman Wong$181.70Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?$335.53Apr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Dalma Galfi vs Leyre Romero Gormaz$1.0KApr 30, 05:29 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open, Qualification: Henrique Rocha vs Jan Choinski$1.0KApr 30, 05:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $98.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 20:37 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 20:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".