Fickle-Outlay
0xf49ded4b0c5c86687cfcfca354a7b06628137e5b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$13.5K
Total PnL
$-14.8K
Realised
$-1.7K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
9690 shares @ 91.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$9.0K
$145.36
- YES
Will "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
929 shares @ 91.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp May 19, 2026$917.85
$72.66
- YES
Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
971 shares @ 91.9¢·now 86.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$834.80
$-57.74
- YES
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
842 shares @ 93.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$762.01
$-21.05
- NO
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?
771 shares @ 92.5¢·now 94.3¢·exp May 19, 2026$726.66
$14.21
- NO
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?
718 shares @ 92.6¢·now 92.1¢·exp May 19, 2026$661.11
$-3.40
- NO
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?
339 shares @ 90.9¢·now 96.7¢·exp May 19, 2026$327.69
$19.41
- YES
Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
239 shares @ 64.9¢·now 81.5¢·exp May 19, 2026$194.76
$39.63
- NO
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
115 shares @ 48.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$105.80
$50.60
- NO
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
19131 shares @ 23.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.5K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$20.43May 17, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$47.54May 16, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$42.24May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$3.98May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$107.57May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$3.21May 16, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$7.86May 16, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$38.70May 16, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$9.00May 16, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$171.82May 16, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$63.27May 16, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$18.00May 16, 07:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Swapped" be the top global Netflix movie this week?$218.89May 16, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$18.79May 16, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$37.96May 16, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top US Netflix show this week?$18.98May 16, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?$93.33May 16, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?$90.55May 16, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?$125.80May 16, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?$267.78May 16, 07:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $122.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 14:50 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 12:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".