Immaterial-Advantage
0xf85fa31a58fcce6c00b5af806a598b1600329800
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$15.8K
Total PnL
$-22.8K
Realised
$-44.26
Win rate
41%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
3968 shares @ 63.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$2.5K
$19.85
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3385 shares @ 70.1¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$-55.25
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1703 shares @ 11.3¢·now 64.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$902.79
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
830 shares @ 29.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$830.47
$583.94
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1062 shares @ 14.3¢·now 69.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$741.92
$590.20
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5047 shares @ 7.8¢·now 13.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$701.60
$307.89
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
750 shares @ 83.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$656.25
$33.51
- NO
Netanyahu out by June 30?
664 shares @ 95.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$642.55
$11.95
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1422 shares @ 64.9¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$561.75
$-361.75
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
971 shares @ 46.6¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$490.15
$37.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.25May 18, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$0.01May 18, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$0.01May 18, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$0.78May 18, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.61May 18, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.33May 18, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.51May 18, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?$1.74May 18, 02:35 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.64May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYTom Holland announced as next James Bond?$0.35May 18, 00:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYTom Holland announced as next James Bond?$0.45May 18, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.18May 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$1.71May 17, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$12.62May 17, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$8.94May 17, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$8.59May 17, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?$7.24May 17, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by May 19, 2026?$30.48May 17, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by May 31, 2026?$82.73May 17, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$15.57May 17, 09:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $18.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 02:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 09:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".