Earnest-Error
0xfa2bc333d6d26372e7d1064c6fa61ecf67f2c35d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$882.46
Total PnL
$-697.01
Realised
$-15.69
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
2844 shares @ 26.6¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$312.83
$-444.91
- YES
Kash Patel out by June 30?
308 shares @ 41.2¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$112.33
$-14.40
- YES
Trump out as President by June 30?
3157 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$42.62
$-46.93
- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
51 shares @ 59.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$31.27
$1.27
- NO
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
30 shares @ 74.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp May 31, 2026$29.01
$6.81
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
100 shares @ 42.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$24.50
$-17.50
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
208 shares @ 12.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.96
$-1.04
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
24 shares @ 83.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp May 31, 2026$23.04
$3.04
- NO
Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
63 shares @ 38.9¢·now 36.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$22.76
$-1.86
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
30 shares @ 67.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.10
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYChicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx$3.08May 18, 00:47 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ant Middleton not summit Everest by June 30?$10.50May 17, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMSabres vs. Canadiens$0.00May 17, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$0.00May 17, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMGP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Dalila Spiteri vs Georgina Garcia Perez$0.00May 17, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev$0.00May 17, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?$0.00May 17, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by December 31?$20.10May 17, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$0.40May 17, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$3.05May 17, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSabres vs. Canadiens$5.12May 17, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$2.13May 17, 01:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$0.26May 17, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$1.39May 17, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?$0.95May 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 17, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$4.95May 16, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$5.38May 16, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump announce Kyle Diamantas as the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$3.66May 16, 23:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $5.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 20:00 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 00:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".