Determined-Mug
0xff4b1f20ab269d3f82287428537f8b533cbfd019
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
186
Open notional
$13.9K
Total PnL
$4.4K
Realised
$4.6K
Win rate
76%
107 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 186- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.3K
$2.8K
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9226 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$-2.9K
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
4268 shares @ 18.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$960.27
$176.66
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
2644 shares @ 19.4¢·now 19.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$515.59
$3.11
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
3751 shares @ 4.9¢·now 5.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$206.33
$21.67
- YES
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
267 shares @ 1.6¢·now 73.5¢·exp May 24, 2026$196.02
$191.83
- NO
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
245 shares @ 73.2¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$181.24
$2.01
- NO
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
197 shares @ 92.1¢·now 91.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$181.17
$-0.69
- YES
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
4857 shares @ 2.5¢·now 3.2¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$155.42
$34.03
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
110 shares @ 91.5¢·now 89.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$97.90
$-2.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?$1.2KMay 18, 04:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$160.00May 18, 04:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$85.00May 18, 03:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$27.00May 18, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$100.00May 18, 01:20 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$10.24May 18, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shane Lowry finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship?$85.00May 18, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russell Henley win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steven Fisk win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matt Wallace win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gary Woodland win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elvis Smylie win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Adam Scott win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jayden Schaper win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill J.J. Spaun win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tom McKibbin win the 2026 PGA Championship?$0.00May 18, 00:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $27.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 00:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 04:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 107 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".