Orrery — decision terminal for prediction markets
Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
Verify
MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
37% 8.0pp
24h volume
$3.3M
Orrery Pulse27% current18-31% 7D range-1.0pp net move
34%29%24%20%15%
27%
May 2527%-1.0pp from start
May 24May 24May 24May 24May 25May 25May 25May 25
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
High
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?UMA PENDING
High
High
High
High
High
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
—
—
—
—
—
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89 | 87/91 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 87 | 88/95 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 86/84 82/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 88/82 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 85/78 86/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 25, 2026
Read full brief - Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? probability down 13.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 88% evidence — verify on the market.
- LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner resolves in 3h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
WATCHLIST DELTA
Watchlist sits in your browser — we don't store it server-side. Add markets you want to track, then this panel shows the since-last-visit delta for each.
Set up watchlistORRERY PRO
Prediction-market intelligence terminal
Know what moved, why it matters, what can go wrong, and what to verify next. Built for humans, teams, and AI agents.