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5 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue Verify source and settlement before reading price moves as info
Resolves in 7h — verify the source
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Event date has passed while the market is still active upstream
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Expired — settlement verification still pending upstream
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MARKET PULSE
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
49% 11.0pp
24h volume
$207.0K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-47% 7D range-46.5pp net move
63%47%32%16%0%
0%
May 200%-46.5pp from start
May 19May 19May 19May 19May 19May 19May 20May 20
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Trump kiss by May 31?UMA PENDING
High
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5UMA PENDING
High
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado RockiesUMA PENDING
High
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)UMA PENDING
High
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)UMA PENDING
High
High
High
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis CardinalsUMA PENDING
High
São Paulo FC vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesUMA PENDING
High
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago CubsUMA PENDING
High
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19?UMA PENDING
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego PadresPAST EVENT
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Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersPAST EVENT
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Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsPAST EVENT
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—
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Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?PINNED NO
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 95/81 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 84 | 88/83 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 83 | 74/89 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 80 | 60/96 98/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 75 | 56/99 80/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 20, 2026
Read full brief - Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? probability up 31.5pp on $0.2M of 24h volume.
- Iran closes its airspace by May 31? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B resolves in 7h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
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