Set 1 Winner: Galarneau vs Uchida
Probability
50¢
1h
-0.4pp
24h
-0.8pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$379.76
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 20, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 99.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Apr 20, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (99.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 08:56SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-0.8pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.3pp at 23:00 (to 75¢).
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Alexis Galarneau and Kaichi Uchida in the Busan, scheduled for April 13 2026. This market will resolve to “Galarneau” if Alexis Galarneau wins the first set. It will resolve to “Uchida” if Kaichi Uchida wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
tennis matchReason
Generic tennis-match marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set 1 Winner: Galarneau vs Uchida"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:56:47 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.8pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and -0.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 20, 2026 (2026-04-20T01:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $172.90. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $379.76. Spread between best bid and best ask: 99.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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