SportsExpires May 25, 2026
Creator

Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon

Probability

13¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$57.3K

Liquidity

$13.6K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official ATP Tour data
Link
atptour.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
13¢
May 16, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:45 UTC
updated 09:45:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-45Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 4.2× turnover

    $57.3k traded against $13.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $13.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 25, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 166.2h

    LOW

Price movement

+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

updated 09:45:26 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 09:45:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGeneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Mannarino and Raphael Collignon in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 18, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Raphael Collignon. This market will resolve to 'Raphael Collignon' if Raphael Collignon advances against Adrian Mannarino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

atp

Reason

ATP-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:45:26 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$57.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $65.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $13.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket