CryptoExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?

Probability

99¢

1h

+0.4pp

24h

+0.9pp

24h Vol

$170.8K

Liquidity

$53.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
99¢
May 11, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 05:59 UTC
updated 06:00:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-00Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 3.2× turnover

    $170.8k traded against $53.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 10h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 10.0h

    HIGH
  • 06:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 10h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.9pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.

Biggest hourly move: +4.4pp at May 16, 05:00 UTC (to 99¢).

Show 3 hourly moves
  • May 16, 17:00 UTC · +3.1pp → 98¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · +3.6pp → 99¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · +4.4pp → 99¢
updated 06:00:24 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:00:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same eventBitcoin above ___ on May 18?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 18?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:00:24 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$170.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $207.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $53.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket