T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Japan vs Papua New Guinea - Toss Match Double Japan Winner

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• 02
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $13 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Japan and Papua New Guinea scheduled for 2026-05-18 in T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Japan will be considered correct if Japan is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Papua New Guinea will be considered correct if Papua New Guinea is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to "Draw". DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.