SportsExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Counter-Strike: hypewrld vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group A

Probability

50¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-49.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.05

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (99.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.1pp 7d
1007550250
50¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:59 UTC
updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-59Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 49pp over 24h

    Now 50¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 99.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 08:59Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

-49.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.

Biggest hourly move: +85.0pp at May 15, 00:00 UTC (to 100¢).

Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · +85.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · +49.5pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 21:00 UTC · +57.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 20:00 UTC · +57.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +51.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +51.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 16:00 UTC · +51.0pp → 100¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +59.5pp → 100¢
updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 08:59:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between hypewrld and SAW in the CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group A, initially scheduled for May 12 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "hypewrld" if hypewrld win the match against SAW. This market will resolve to "SAW" if SAW win the match against hypewrld. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

counter-strike

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "counter-strike" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Counter-Strike: hypewrld vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Play-In Group A"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:59:50 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -49.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T17:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://hltv.org.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://hltv.org. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.05. Spread between best bid and best ask: 99.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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