CryptoExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?

Probability

22¢

1h

-0.3pp

24h

-0.9pp

24h Vol

$1.0K

Liquidity

$422.94

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=disputed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA DISPUTED

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Resolution is contested. Do not treat the current price as final until UMA settles.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
Primary
information that is public as of May 15, 2026 ET
Link
blackrock.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: disputed
  • Wide spread (22.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-34.4pp 7d
1007550250
22¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:04 UTC
updated 06:04:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-04Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 22.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 06:04Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: -52.7pp at 06:04 (to 22¢).

Show top 8 of 69 hourly moves
  • 06:04 · -52.7pp → 22¢
  • 05:00 · -52.1pp → 22¢
  • 07:00 · -38.4pp → 23¢
  • May 16, 21:00 UTC · -38.3pp → 22¢
  • May 16, 19:00 UTC · -38.2pp → 22¢
  • May 16, 17:00 UTC · -42.1pp → 18¢
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · -40.0pp → 21¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 21¢
updated 06:04:13 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:04:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any fund with holdings of at least $250,000,000 US in $IBIT (https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf), that forms a holdings allocation of 25% or greater in that asset, in either Q3 2025 or Q4 2025 shows holdings of $10,000,000 or less US in Q1 2026 on their 13F filing (https://www.sec.gov/submit-filings/forms-index) when that information is made public. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on information that is public as of May 15, 2026 ET. The resolution source for this market will be information from the 13F for a specified company.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

crypto

Reason

Question text contains "crypto" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:04:13 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and -34.4pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (disputed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $422.94. Spread between best bid and best ask: 22.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket