TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 22, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?

Probability

4¢

1h

+0.7pp

24h

-5.7pp

24h Vol

$32.1K

Liquidity

$29.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
4¢
May 12, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:10 UTC
updated 06:10:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 6pp over 24h

    Now 4¢; +0.7pp in the last hour.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 9¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 22, 16:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 105.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-5.7pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.

Biggest hourly move: +29.0pp at May 15, 16:00 UTC (to 46¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • 06:10 · -10.0pp → 4¢
  • 05:00 · -13.8pp → 3¢
  • 04:00 · -13.7pp → 3¢
  • 14:00 · -9.0pp → 9¢
  • May 17, 00:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 23:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 8¢
  • May 16, 20:00 UTC · -10.5pp → 8¢
  • May 15, 16:00 UTC · +29.0pp → 46¢
updated 06:10:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:10:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventElon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:10:12 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -5.7pp in the last 24 hours, +0.7pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$32.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $176.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket