TechMulti-outcomeExpires May 18, 2026
Creator

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?

Probability

5¢

1h

-1.6pp

24h

+2.8pp

24h Vol

$265.7K

Liquidity

$21.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 7h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 18, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Polymarket Post Counter (tracker)
Link
xtracker.polymarket.com
Type
Tracker / counter
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 18, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
5¢
May 14, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 09:02 UTC
updated 09:02:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T09-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; -1.6pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 12.6× turnover

    $265.7k traded against $21.0k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 7h.

  • 04
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $21.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 7 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 16:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 7.0h

    HIGH
  • 09:02Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 7h.

    LOW

Price movement

+2.8pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -9.1pp at May 17, 06:00 UTC (to 4¢).

Show top 8 of 10 hourly moves
  • 09:02 · -4.4pp → 5¢
  • 07:00 · -6.2pp → 1¢
  • 05:00 · -4.3pp → 2¢
  • 02:00 · -4.3pp → 2¢
  • 00:00 · -4.9pp → 1¢
  • 23:00 · -4.7pp → 1¢
  • 21:00 · -4.8pp → 1¢
  • May 17, 06:00 UTC · -9.1pp → 4¢
updated 09:02:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 09:02:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

5
Same eventElon Musk # tweets May 16 - May 18, 2026?
Category · Tech

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Tech

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

elon musk

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "elon musk" — matched the Tech rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:02:09 GMT, YES is priced at 5% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.8pp in the last 24 hours, -1.6pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 18, 2026 (2026-05-18T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://x.com/elonmusk.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$265.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $327.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $21.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket