Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 0 Elche CF?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-40.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryofficial statisticsTypeOfficial statisticsConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 23, 19:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 96.4h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -39.0pp at May 18, 08:00 UTC (to 8¢).
Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
- 00:00 · -37.5pp → 9¢
- 22:00 · -37.0pp → 9¢
- May 18, 17:00 UTC · -38.5pp → 9¢
- May 18, 14:00 UTC · -38.0pp → 8¢
- May 18, 12:00 UTC · -37.5pp → 9¢
- May 18, 10:00 UTC · -38.0pp → 9¢
- May 18, 09:00 UTC · -38.0pp → 9¢
- May 18, 08:00 UTC · -39.0pp → 8¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming La Liga game between Girona FC and Elche CF, scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Girona FC vs. Elche CF match originally scheduled for May 23, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if final official statistics are not published within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
la ligaReason
La Liga — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 0 Elche CF?"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 18:33:03 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -40.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.