Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5)
Probability
88¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+12.2pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$864.11
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 20, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (23.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+42.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 12pp over 24h
Now 88¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 23.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 20, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (23.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 12:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+12.2pp over the last 24h, now 88¢.
Biggest hourly move: +30.6pp at May 14, 02:00 UTC (to 76¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +12.1pp → 88¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · +23.4pp → 76¢
- May 14, 07:00 UTC · +23.3pp → 76¢
- May 14, 06:00 UTC · +23.1pp → 76¢
- May 14, 05:00 UTC · +23.3pp → 76¢
- May 14, 04:00 UTC · +29.9pp → 76¢
- May 14, 02:00 UTC · +30.6pp → 76¢
- May 14, 01:00 UTC · +30.5pp → 76¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Anyone's Legend and Weibo Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, scheduled for January 20 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Anyone's Legend" if Anyone's Legend secures 11 or more kills than Weibo Gaming in the match. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Weibo Gaming". If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5)"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:42:44 GMT, YES is priced at 88% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +12.2pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +42.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 20, 2026 (2026-01-20T15:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $864.11. Spread between best bid and best ask: 23.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.