LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+38.0pp
24h Vol
$10.6K
Liquidity
$106.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 38pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Light volume — move on a thin book
Only $10.6k traded against $106.1k of visible liquidity (0.10× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 21, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 21, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 15:17SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 09:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 6h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+38.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +38.5pp at 09:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
- 10:14 · +38.0pp → 100¢
- 09:00 · +38.5pp → 100¢
- 08:00 · +38.0pp → 100¢
- 05:00 · -9.5pp → 49¢
- May 20, 06:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 59¢
- May 18, 16:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 57¢
- May 18, 12:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 57¢
- May 18, 11:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between DN SOOPers Challengers and Hanwha Life Esports Challengers in the LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 21 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "DN SOOPers Challengers" if DN SOOPers Challengers win Game 2 against Hanwha Life Esports Challengers. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports Challengers" if Hanwha Life Esports Challengers win Game 2 against DN SOOPers Challengers. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Thu, 21 May 2026 15:17:54 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +38.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $106.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.