Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$44.95
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+50.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $45 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +50.0pp at May 16, 10:00 UTC (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 35 hourly moves
- 13:07 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 12:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 10:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 09:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 08:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 07:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 05:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 03:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Lower bracket round 1 match between Invictus Gaming and Top Esports in the Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2, initially scheduled for April 13 at 7:00AM ET: This market is about the total kills in Game 2. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 2 is 31 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under". If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:07:38 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +50.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 14, 2026 (2026-04-14T16:45:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $60.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $44.95. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.