SportsExpires May 20, 2026
Creator

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner

Probability

33¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

+2.5pp

24h Vol

$129.07

Liquidity

$11.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

ScannerMarketWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 2h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
gol.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
33¢
May 15, 2026, 16:00 UTCMay 19, 2026, 18:47 UTC
updated 11:52:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-20T11-52Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 33¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 2h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2.1h

    HIGH
  • 11:52Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h.

    LOW

Price movement

+2.5pp over the last 24h, now 33¢.

Biggest hourly move: -20.5pp at May 18, 07:00 UTC (to 30¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • May 18, 15:00 UTC · +3.5pp → 33¢
  • May 18, 12:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 35¢
  • May 18, 08:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 30¢
  • May 18, 07:00 UTC · -20.5pp → 30¢
  • May 18, 05:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 30¢
  • May 18, 04:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 32¢
updated 11:52:19 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

7
updated 11:52:19 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the LoL match between Nongshim Red Force and KT Rolster in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 20 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim Red Force" if Nongshim Red Force win Game 2 against KT Rolster. This market will resolve to "KT Rolster" if KT Rolster win Game 2 against Nongshim Red Force. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol:

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner"?

As of Wed, 20 May 2026 11:52:19 GMT, YES is priced at 33% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.5pp in the last 24 hours, +1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 20, 2026 (2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$129.07 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $133.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $11.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket