LoL: SU Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner
Probability
63¢
1h
+2.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$485.48
Liquidity
$17.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 5h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 22, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 5h.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 5 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 22, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 5.1h
- 15:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
1- BUYPCIFIC May 22, 15:51 UTC
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Market Description
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between SU Esports and PCIFIC in the TCL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 22 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "SU Esports" if SU Esports win Game 2 against PCIFIC . This market will resolve to "PCIFIC " if PCIFIC win Game 2 against SU Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: SU Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner"?
As of Fri, 22 May 2026 15:55:34 GMT, YES is priced at 63% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +2.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$485.48 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $485.48. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $17.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.