LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner
Probability
93¢
1h
+49.5pp
24h
+50.5pp
24h Vol
$247.7K
Liquidity
$43.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 51pp over 24h
Now 93¢; +49.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.6× turnover
$247.7k traded against $43.9k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 50.5pp in 24h with 5.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 20:23SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 50.5pp in 24h with 5.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 20:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 12:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 8h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
+50.5pp over the last 24h, now 93¢.
Biggest hourly move: +57.0pp at 06:48 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 06:48 · +57.0pp → 100¢
- May 21, 09:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 43¢
- May 21, 07:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 43¢
- May 21, 05:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 43¢
- May 21, 03:00 UTC · -10.0pp → 43¢
- May 21, 01:00 UTC · -9.5pp → 43¢
- May 20, 23:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 43¢
- May 20, 22:00 UTC · -9.0pp → 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
11- 1¢-0.2
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $2.9M
- 100¢+27.5
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?
Sports · Vol $2.8M
- 45¢0.0
Knicks vs. Cavaliers
Sports · Vol $2.0M
- 97¢+30.0
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23?
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 17¢-26.0
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23?
Sports · Vol $1.5M
- 36¢+1.0
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes
Sports · Vol $1.3M
Market Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Team WE and LNG Esports in the LPL Play-In, initially scheduled for May 23 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team WE" if Team WE win Game 1 against LNG Esports. This market will resolve to "LNG Esports" if LNG Esports win Game 1 against Team WE. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
lol:Reason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol:" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner"?
As of Sat, 23 May 2026 20:23:51 GMT, YES is priced at 93% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +50.5pp in the last 24 hours, +49.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$247.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $247.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $43.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
15 wallets- Self-Reliant-Camp28.7K
- Tough-Surface17.0K
- Dearest-Urge14.5K
- Mealy-Collaboration12.8K
- Ripe-Aquarium10.2K