SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?

Probability

14¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$760.20

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NHL data
Link
nhl.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
14¢
May 11, 2026, 08:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 07:10 UTC
updated 07:10:44 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T07-10Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 5.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1024.8h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.5pp at May 14, 11:00 UTC (to 18¢).

Show top 8 of 59 hourly moves
  • 00:00 · -5.0pp → 14¢
  • May 16, 13:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • May 16, 11:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • May 16, 08:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 12¢
  • May 14, 14:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 18¢
  • May 14, 12:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 18¢
  • May 14, 11:00 UTC · +5.5pp → 18¢
updated 07:10:44 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 07:10:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNHL Hart Memorial Trophy Winner
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy. If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Hart Memorial Trophy, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nhl

Reason

NHL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 07:10:44 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.nhl.com/awards.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/awards. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $70.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $760.20. Spread between best bid and best ask: 5.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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