Will Crusaders win?
Probability
58¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
+16.8pp
24h Vol
$59.03
Liquidity
$2.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+14.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 17pp over 24h
Now 58¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 24.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 29, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 29, 07:05 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 261.3h
- 09:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+16.8pp over the last 24h, now 58¢.
Biggest hourly move: +32.6pp at May 15, 08:00 UTC (to 38¢).
Show top 8 of 47 hourly moves
- 09:00 · +16.9pp → 58¢
- 07:00 · +15.4pp → 57¢
- 05:00 · +16.0pp → 57¢
- 02:00 · +22.5pp → 59¢
- 00:00 · +18.9pp → 55¢
- May 15, 08:00 UTC · +32.6pp → 38¢
- May 15, 06:00 UTC · +31.8pp → 42¢
- May 14, 10:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 22 2026 If Crusaders wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Crusaders win?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:47:53 GMT, YES is priced at 58% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +16.8pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and +14.2pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 29, 2026 (2026-05-29T07:05:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://super.rugby/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://super.rugby/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$59.03 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $596.17. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 24.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.