Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?
Probability
49¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.96
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 97.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 21:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5457.9h
- 11:03SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 49¢.
Biggest hourly move: +37.5pp at May 16, 17:00 UTC (to 88¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 08:00 · -36.0pp → 49¢
- May 17, 06:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 88¢
- May 17, 05:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 88¢
- May 17, 03:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 88¢
- May 17, 02:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 88¢
- May 16, 17:00 UTC · +37.5pp → 88¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 87¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · +37.0pp → 87¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
s&p 500Reason
S&P 500 equity-index market — Macro / Markets.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 11:03:28 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.96. Spread between best bid and best ask: 97.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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