UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims)
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$192.36
Liquidity
$6.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 23¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 306.2h
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 23¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at May 14, 14:00 UTC (to 21¢).
Show top 8 of 53 hourly moves
- May 16, 11:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 25¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 25¢
- May 16, 05:00 UTC · -13.0pp → 25¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -13.5pp → 24¢
- May 14, 17:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 22¢
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 22¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · -17.0pp → 21¢
- May 14, 12:00 UTC · -16.0pp → 22¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 50¢-7.0
Fight to Go the Distance?
Sports · Vol $1.04
- 50¢0.0
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Jesus Aguilar win by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Rei Tsuruya win by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will the fight be won by submission?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-0.1
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 17¢0.0
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $749.9K
- 0¢-69.5
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $687.6K
- 33¢+1.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $638.5K
- 1¢0.0
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $616.3K
- 0¢0.0
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $608.1K
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Jesus Aguilar" if Jesus Aguilar is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rei Tsuruya at UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo, scheduled for May 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Rei Tsuruya" if Rei Tsuruya is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims)"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 09:48:24 GMT, YES is priced at 23% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -13.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$192.36 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $755.37. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.