SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?

Probability

65¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$30.50

Liquidity

$16.8K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
to the region or country of the esports team winning 1st place in the League of Legends 2026 Season World Championship (
Link
lol.fandom.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
1007550250
65¢
May 11, 2026, 09:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 08:58 UTC
updated 08:58:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T08-58Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $16.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5439.0h

    LOW
  • 08:58Signal

    Resolution risk

    Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 65¢.

Biggest hourly move: -5.0pp at May 15, 00:00 UTC (to 63¢).

Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · -3.5pp → 65¢
  • 09:00 · -3.5pp → 65¢
  • May 16, 03:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 65¢
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 65¢
  • May 15, 03:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 63¢
  • May 15, 02:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 63¢
  • May 15, 00:00 UTC · -5.0pp → 63¢
  • May 14, 23:00 UTC · -4.5pp → 64¢
updated 08:58:35 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:58:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventWorlds 2026 Winning Region
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the region or country of the esports team winning 1st place in the League of Legends 2026 Season World Championship (Worlds 2026). If the winner of Worlds 2026 is not determined by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Fandom (https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/2026_Season_World_Championship). Regions counted in World 2026: - LCK (South Korea) - LPL (China) - LEC (Europe / EMEA) - LCP (Asia-Pacific) - LCS (North America) - CBLOL (Brazil)

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

lol

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "lol" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 08:58:35 GMT, YES is priced at 65% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -1.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$30.50 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $22.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $16.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket