Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$30.21
Liquidity
$3.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 45h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible sourcesTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 45h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 45 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 25, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible sourcesTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 25, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 44.7h
- 03:20SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 45h.
Price movement
+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the first Final Classification published by IndyCar following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the first Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only IndyCar’s published classification will be used to resolve this market. If a driver withdraws, or does not participate for any reason, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Indianapolis 500 is canceled or rescheduled to a date after June 7, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source will be the official IndyCar website; however, a consensus of credible sources may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
napoliReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "napoli" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?"?
As of Sat, 23 May 2026 03:20:19 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 25, 2026 (2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$30.21 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $32.71. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.