SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 27, 2026
Creator

Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Probability

18¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.0pp

24h Vol

$424.81

Liquidity

$10.0K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 27, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+3.0pp 7d
1007550250
18¢
May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:05 UTC
updated 06:06:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-06Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 18¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $10.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 27, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 209.9h

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 18¢.

Biggest hourly move: +9.5pp at May 13, 20:00 UTC (to 24¢).

Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 17¢
  • May 14, 18:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 17:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 16:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 06:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 20¢
  • May 14, 04:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 20¢
  • May 13, 20:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 24¢
updated 06:06:02 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:06:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventEnglish Premier League – 2nd Place
Category · Sports

Market Description

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will finish in 2nd place in the 2025–26 English Premier League. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 2nd in the final standings of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 2nd in the 2025-26 EPL season (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

premier league

Reason

EPL — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:06:02 GMT, YES is priced at 18% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +3.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$424.81 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $97.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket