Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-a-trophy-this-season renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-arsenal-win-a-trophy-this-season/markdown.

SportsExpires May 30, 2026

Creator

Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?

Probability

89¢

+0.0pp

24h

+0.2pp

24h Vol

$4.8K

Liquidity

$77.3K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.9pp 7d

89¢

May 11, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 06:00 UTC

updated 06:00:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T06-00Z

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type: Binary

No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

May 30, 23:55 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 305.9h
LOW

Price movement

+0.2pp over the last 24h, now 89¢.

Biggest hourly move: -4.0pp at May 14, 09:00 UTC (to 88¢).

Show 2 hourly moves

May 14, 10:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 89¢
May 14, 09:00 UTC · -4.0pp → 88¢

updated 06:00:22 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 06:00:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arsenal is officially crowned the winner of at least one of the following competitions: the 2025–26 English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Carabao Cup or FA Cup. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for Arsenal to win any of the four listed competitions (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from winning, or eliminated from, all four competitions), the market will immediately resolve to "No". If one or more of the listed competitions is canceled or is otherwise not completed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the results of the listed competitions that have been completed at that time. If Arsenal has not won any listed competition by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the organizers of the listed competitions; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 06:00:22 GMT, YES is priced at 89% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.2pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T23:55:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.8K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $456.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $77.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.4¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket