Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?
Probability
8¢
1h
-2.7pp
24h
+7.8pp
24h Vol
$56.18
Liquidity
$130.34
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-12.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 8pp over 24h
Now 8¢; -2.7pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 10.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 5¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowPrice movement
+7.8pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.9pp at May 14, 10:00 UTC (to 0¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 12:00 · +16.2pp → 16¢
- 23:00 · +16.1pp → 16¢
- 21:00 · +16.0pp → 16¢
- May 14, 14:00 UTC · -21.3pp → 0¢
- May 14, 10:00 UTC · -21.9pp → 0¢
- May 14, 09:00 UTC · -19.3pp → 0¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · -17.8pp → 0¢
- May 14, 03:00 UTC · -19.4pp → 0¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NFL player is traded by July 22, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nfl Reason
NFL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Brian Thomas Jr. be traded?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 14:33:12 GMT, YES is priced at 8% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +7.8pp in the last 24 hours, -2.7pp in the last hour, and -12.3pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$56.18 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $130.34. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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