Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for New England Revolution next?
Probability
41¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-1.7pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$19.72
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (82.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+22.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 41¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 82.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (82.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 31, 02:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2508.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-1.7pp over the last 24h, now 41¢.
Biggest hourly move: +33.1pp at May 15, 17:00 UTC (to 49¢).
Show top 8 of 71 hourly moves
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · +33.0pp → 47¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · +33.1pp → 47¢
- May 16, 11:00 UTC · +33.0pp → 47¢
- May 16, 09:00 UTC · +33.0pp → 47¢
- May 16, 08:00 UTC · +32.9pp → 48¢
- May 16, 06:00 UTC · +32.9pp → 48¢
- May 16, 03:00 UTC · +32.9pp → 48¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · +33.1pp → 49¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next club Cristiano Ronaldo officially joins by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. If Cristiano Ronaldo does not officially join a new club by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Al Nassr”. If Cristiano Ronaldo signs a contract that includes a delayed transfer or loan-back clause requiring him to remain at Al Nassr for a specified period before joining another club, this market will resolve to the club he is officially contracted to join following that period. If Cristiano Ronaldo joins a club that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Cristiano Ronaldo is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional club by August 31, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Transfers or assignments between a club’s senior team and reserve or affiliate teams will not be considered for this market. An official transfer announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Al Nassr and/or the acquiring club. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for New England Revolution next?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 13:48:27 GMT, YES is priced at 41% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.7pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +22.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 31, 2026 (2026-08-31T02:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.72. Spread between best bid and best ask: 82.4¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.