SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Will Lerone Murphy be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Probability

6¢

1h

-0.2pp

24h

+3.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.4K

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Link
ufc.com
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.8pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
May 11, 2026, 11:00 UTCMay 18, 2026, 10:37 UTC
updated 10:37:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-18T10-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 3pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; -0.2pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 10.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 5437.4h

    LOW
  • 10:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+3.4pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -42.6pp at May 16, 05:00 UTC (to 2¢).

Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
  • May 16, 15:00 UTC · -32.7pp → 3¢
  • May 16, 09:00 UTC · -40.5pp → 2¢
  • May 16, 06:00 UTC · -31.3pp → 3¢
  • May 16, 05:00 UTC · -42.6pp → 2¢
  • May 16, 03:00 UTC · -41.4pp → 4¢
  • May 16, 02:00 UTC · -37.9pp → 7¢
  • May 15, 15:00 UTC · -31.6pp → 9¢
  • May 14, 01:00 UTC · +38.8pp → 45¢
updated 10:37:49 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:37:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Lerone Murphy be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?"?

As of Mon, 18 May 2026 10:37:49 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.2pp in the last hour, and -12.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 10.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

17 wallets
Open on Polymarket