Will Maryville University win NACL 2026 Spring?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$970.87
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $971 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 5, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 416.4h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.5pp at May 16, 12:00 UTC (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
- 15:36 · -7.0pp → 16¢
- 14:00 · -7.0pp → 16¢
- May 17, 00:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 15¢
- May 16, 19:00 UTC · -7.5pp → 15¢
- May 16, 17:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
- May 16, 15:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
- May 16, 14:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
- May 16, 12:00 UTC · -8.5pp → 14¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the North American Challengers League (NACL) 2026 Spring season. If the 2026 Spring season is postponed after June 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Maryville University win NACL 2026 Spring?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 15:36:24 GMT, YES is priced at 16% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -8.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 5, 2026 (2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $970.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.